The Autumn Budget on the 26th November is expected to bring a range of changes for business owners. The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has already indicated updates on business rates reform, and there is speculation around increases to the National Minimum Wage and potential tax rises to boost government revenue.
Declining Confidence and Growth Forecasts
SME confidence has taken a significant hit, with growth forecasts plummeting to levels reminiscent of the 2020 lockdown period. According to Novuna Business Finance, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen for four consecutive quarters, reaching a five-year low of 26%.
This decline is attributed to various factors but includes at its centre rising employer National Insurance contributions, uncertainty over tariffs, and fears of upcoming tax increases.
The Chancellor has acknowledged (again) the disappointing economic figures and emphasised the government's commitment to stimulating growth. However, there is growing concern among SMEs about potential tax increases in the upcoming Autumn Budget. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) warns that such measures could further dampen business confidence and hinder recovery.
But while there is (rightly) uncertainty around what the budget holds for SMES and what the future looks like, this budget should also be seen as more than a fiscal event. It’s an opportunity to take stock, review plans, and prepare for the months ahead
Planning ahead: key considerations for SME leaders
While no one can predict exactly what will be announced, SME owners can start asking practical “what if” questions now. Possible changes could include adjustments to corporation tax or National Insurance, as well as new incentives for digital adoption or sustainability investments.
At SME Capital, we believe the right preparation helps businesses stay resilient and ready to act, even when the economic outlook is uncertain. Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical factors may shift, but growth remains achievable for businesses that plan carefully and respond decisively.
We recommend considering three key scenarios as you shape your next phase of growth:
Review your financial forecasts and identify where additional tax pressure might appear. Are there ways to protect growth by reallocating funds or streamlining costs?
A rise in tax can feel like a setback, but staying focused on your long-term goals and growth ambitions can help maintain confidence and momentum.
Scenario planning is crucial. Work with your financial partners early to ensure your growth plans remain viable under different tax conditions.
Assess where technology, automation, or sustainability measures could strengthen your business model or open new opportunities.
Many business leaders want to create positive impact as well as profit. If new funding or grants support those ambitions, it may be the moment to act.
Assign someone in your team to monitor government schemes and move quickly. Incentives are often time-sensitive and can make a real difference to your investment plans.
The government may look to stimulate growth through new or expanded funding initiatives. Review your roadmap and identify projects that could be accelerated with additional capital.
Growth funding can give your team the confidence to invest in expansion, recruitment or acquisitions that drive long-term value.
Be ready to act. An up-to-date business plan and clear growth story will help you move quickly if new finance becomes available.
Stay prepared with the right financial partner
The Autumn Budget will set the tone for the business environment heading into 2026. While some policies may create challenges, others will open up new opportunities. The key is to plan early, understand your funding options, and make decisions from a position of strength.
About SME Capital
SME Capital was founded to support the growing number of SMEs who face difficulty or frustration in accessing capital through traditional methods. We understand the importance of real and trusted relationships in the SME lending market and have dedicated Regional Directors based across the UK.
By combining traditional lending expertise with the latest in data analytics, we are supporting established UK SMEs with their long-term objectives and business ambitions.
October 2025
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